Predicting the trajectory of emerging technologies has always been a challenge, but it appears to have become even trickier in recent years. One moment, everyone discusses a new platform as though it will reshape entire industries; the next, it fades away without a trace. Meanwhile, something that was barely noticed can suddenly surge ahead, transforming how we work in the space of a few months. For CIOs, the dilemma is clear: if you adopt a technology too soon, you risk costly misjudgements; if you delay for too long, you risk losing ground to competitors that recognised the opportunity earlier.

Part of the problem lies in our natural tendency to think in straight lines. We are wired to observe how something is performing now and assume that it will continue along the same path. Yet certain technologies grow rapidly and unexpectedly, making them difficult to forecast. As Bill Gates once put it, “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” This tendency to overlook long-term potential has been highlighted by a range of publications, including Harvard Business Review and MIT Sloan Management Review, which point to various human biases and organisational pressures that contribute to misjudgements.

These blind spots do not only affect individual companies. They can hold back entire industries if enough leaders misread the shifts or dismiss them prematurely. While it can be tempting to rely on ever more data or sophisticated analytics, ultimately it is our interpretation and decision-making processes that make or break any technology adoption. History shows that even very knowledgeable technology experts sometimes fail to anticipate which innovations will succeed and which will fade into obscurity.

On January 30, our Annual Event “Back to the Future” will bring together a panel of CIOs to examine these issues in greater detail. We will start by reflecting on twenty years of technological progress, exploring how we collectively responded—or failed to respond—to game-changing advances. Rather than dwell on past mistakes, the goal is to understand the underlying thought processes and cultural factors that led to them. With those insights in hand, we will then look towards the future, discussing ways we can become more aware of our biases and better prepared for the next wave of developments.

Although accurately judging technological evolutions may never be simple, improving our awareness of the cognitive and organisational forces at play can help us make more measured assessments. By looking back at lessons learnt, we can approach emerging trends with a sharper sense of when to embrace change, and when to wait until the evidence is truly compelling. This careful balance is what CIOs aim to master, and it is exactly the conversation we plan to have at our “Back to the Future” event.