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Evaluating our 2025 Cloud Predictions in the Real World

Published by Luc Hendrikx
March 04, 2025 @ 11:33 AM

Now that we’ve moved into March 2025, and had a full year to observe, it’s time to revisit the predictions we made back in December 2023 about the key trends shaping the 2024 cloud computing landscape. We forecasted a year of transformative shifts, and now, with a clearer view, we can assess how accurately those predictions reflected reality. Let’s delve into each of the 10 trends and see where we were spot-on, where we might have underestimated, and what new developments have emerged.

1. Enterprise-Grade Cloud Operating Model

Prediction: The necessity for robust governance, architecture, and automation in scaled public cloud deployments.
Evaluation: This prediction has proven bang on. Organisations indeed prioritised structured cloud operating models throughout 2024. Cloud FinOps saw significant uptake, highlighting the need for financial governance alongside technical excellence. The push for product-oriented teams and self-service capabilities accelerated as predicted.
Today's Nuance: The complexity of multi-cloud environments in 2024 amplified the need for standardised operating models, making interoperability a critical factor that required more focus than initially anticipated.

 

2. Continued Investments in Data and AI

Prediction: The convergence of cloud and AI/ML as a major driver for cloud adoption.
Evaluation: This trend exceeded expectations, largely due to the explosive growth of generative AI. Cloud providers raced to offer AI-optimised infrastructure and services. The demand for scalable data platforms to support AI workloads was unprecedented in 2024.
Today's Nuance: The ethical implications of AI were a major focus in 2024, leading to new regulations and adding complexity to cloud deployments.  This, coupled with concerns around IP protection and rising cloud costs, fuelled an emerging trend of organisations seeking to "bring AI home" by exploring on-premises AI infrastructure or sovereign cloud solutions.

 

3. The Internet of Things and Edge Computing

Prediction: Increased adoption of edge computing to support IoT applications and reduce latency.
Evaluation: This prediction held true. Edge AI emerged as a critical component, enabling real-time processing of data closer to the source. 5G rollout further fuelled the growth of edge computing throughout 2024.
Today's Nuance: Security challenges at the edge were a significant concern in 2024, requiring robust solutions to protect distributed devices and data. The need for standardised edge security protocols became very apparent.

 

4. Serverless Computing: Simplifying Development and Deployment

Prediction: Continued momentum for serverless architectures due to reduced operational complexity and improved scalability.
Evaluation: Serverless adoption continued to grow throughout 2024, particularly for event-driven applications and microservices. Developers increasingly leveraged serverless functions to build agile and scalable solutions.
Today's Nuance: Cost optimisation in serverless environments was a growing focus in 2024, as organisations sought to manage the potential for runaway costs. Tools to monitor and control serverless costs matured significantly.

 

5. The Secret Sauce for Cloud is the Potential for Automation

Prediction: Automation as a key driver of efficiency, quality, and risk reduction.
Evaluation: This remained a fundamental principle in 2024. AI-driven automation became more prevalent, with AI assisting in tasks like infrastructure provisioning, security monitoring, and incident response. Infrastructure as Code became a standard practice.
Today's Nuance: The challenge in 2024 was achieving end-to-end automation across complex cloud environments, requiring a holistic approach and more advanced orchestration tools. The quest continues into 2025 for most organisations.

 

6. Cloud-Native Technologies: Empowering Scalability and Resilience

Prediction: Continued adoption of containers, microservices, and Kubernetes.
Evaluation: Cloud-native technologies were fully mainstream in 2024. Kubernetes became the de facto standard for container orchestration. Service mesh and observability tools were essential for managing complex cloud-native applications.
Today's Nuance: Security was a major focus in cloud-native environments in 2024, with DevSecOps practices becoming increasingly important and highly automated. Furthermore, recent shifts in the virtualisation landscape, including major vendor acquisitions, have ironically accelerated the push towards truly cloud-native applications. Rising costs and uncertainty around traditional virtualisation are prompting organisations to embrace containers, microservices, serverless, and other cloud-native technologies to gain greater flexibility, portability, and control over their deployments. This shift allows them to reduce reliance on specific virtualisation vendors and build more resilient and adaptable applications.

 

7. "Cloud-Unless" Policy

Prediction: Public cloud as the default environment for new applications.
Evaluation: While the cloud-first approach remained prevalent in 2024, this prediction requires some qualification. Geopolitical uncertainties and increasing cost pressures led some organisations to reconsider the "cloud-unless" stance, particularly for sensitive applications or those with strict data residency requirements. This resulted in a more nuanced approach, with a greater emphasis on hybrid and multi-cloud strategies to balance the benefits of cloud with concerns around sovereignty, control, and cost optimization.
Today's Nuance: Legacy modernisation remained a significant challenge in 2024, with organisations seeking effective strategies to migrate existing applications to the cloud, and the rise of cloud-based legacy application refactoring tools. However, the trend of repatriating some applications, or even building new ones on-premises or in alternative cloud environments, highlights a growing need for flexibility and a more strategic approach to cloud adoption.

 

8. Vendor Competition and Multi-Cloud

Prediction: Increased competition between cloud providers and the need for multi-cloud strategies to leverage this competition.
Evaluation: While the competition between AWS, Azure, and GCP indeed remained fierce in 2024, with each vying for market share through differentiated offerings and pricing, many organisations haven't fully capitalised on this competitive landscape. The predicted rise of multi-cloud adoption did occur, driven by needs for flexibility and resilience, but it often wasn't strategically leveraged to strengthen negotiating positions. Many organisations still struggle with application portability, limiting their ability to easily switch providers or play vendors against each other to secure better terms.
Today's Nuance: Managing the complexity of multi-cloud environments requires sophisticated tools and expertise. In 2024, the multi-cloud management tool market saw significant evolution and strong cloud agnostic solutions reached full maturity. The focus now needs to shift towards building truly portable applications that can seamlessly move across different cloud environments. This will empower organisations to truly leverage vendor competition and avoid lock-in.


9. Will Confidential Computing be the Future of Cloud in Europe?

Prediction: Confidential computing as a solution for cloud sovereignty and privacy concerns.
Evaluation: While confidential computing did gain some traction in 2024, particularly in regulated industries, its adoption wasn't as widespread as initially anticipated. This was partly due to the factors mentioned previously (standards and interoperability), but also because the geopolitical landscape significantly influenced cloud strategies. Concerns about data sovereignty and security, particularly in relation to American-owned hyperscale cloud providers, have led many European organisations to explore alternatives like sovereign cloud solutions or on-premises deployments for their most sensitive applications.
Today's Nuance: The lack of standardisation in confidential computing remains a barrier, but the evolving geopolitical situation and the limited availability of confidential computing options from SaaS providers are also hindering wider adoption. Organisations are increasingly seeking solutions that provide greater control over their data and reduce reliance on specific vendors or jurisdictions.


10. Public Cloud Adoption has become a must in the war for talent:

Prediction: Cloud skills as a critical factor in attracting and retaining talent.
Evaluation: This prediction was validated in 2024, but with an important evolution. While the demand for cloud professionals remained high, the conversation shifted from simply having cloud skills to embracing cutting-edge technologies like generative AI. Cloud itself became a baseline expectation for young talent; they can't fathom an organization without it. To attract top talent in 2024, organizations needed to demonstrate not just cloud adoption, but also a commitment to innovation and the integration of emerging technologies like AI and ML.
Today's Nuance: The rise of AI in 2024 created new cloud-related roles and required professionals to adapt to evolving skill sets, and the need for prompt engineering specialists became very high. Organisations that fail to keep pace with these technological advancements risk being seen as outdated and unattractive by the next generation of talent.

 

Conclusion

Our 2024 predictions proved largely accurate, capturing the significant trends that shaped the cloud landscape. However, the year also revealed some important nuances. The explosive rise of generative AI, coupled with geopolitical tensions and cost pressures, led to a more complex and nuanced cloud adoption landscape than initially anticipated.

While cloud-unless strategies remained dominant, concerns around data sovereignty, ethical AI practices, and vendor lock-in fueled a growing interest in hybrid and multi-cloud approaches, on-premises deployments for sensitive workloads, and even repatriation of certain applications.

Furthermore, the rapid pace of technological advancement, particularly in AI and cloud-native technologies, underscored the need for continuous innovation and upskilling to attract and retain top talent. Organisations that solely focused on basic cloud adoption found themselves falling behind in the competition for skilled professionals.

As we move further into 2025, it's clear that a successful cloud strategy requires more than just embracing the cloud; it demands a strategic, adaptable, and nuanced approach that balances the benefits of cloud computing with concerns around cost, control, and the evolving geopolitical landscape. Organisations must prioritize agility, flexibility, and a commitment to staying ahead of the curve to thrive in this dynamic environment.

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